Tuesday, March 31, 2009
TRADING MODEL - CI AND CPO
EMA3 AND SMA4+.2
EMA4 AND SMA6-1.1
EMA2 AND SMA3 60MINS INTERVAL
CPO
EMA4 AND SMA5
EMA5 AND SMA6 60MINS INTERVAL
Sunday, March 29, 2009
DAYTRADING - CAN'T MAKE MONEY
Saturday, March 28, 2009
Top 2008 Earners: Trend Followers Right There
Blog: Top 2008 Earners: Trend Followers Right There
Alpha Magazine’s top 25 earners for 2008 is littered with trend following traders. The trend followers:
6. Bruce Kovner: Caxton Associates $640 Million
The man is a former cabdriver - of course he knows how to survive. Bruce Kovner’s 13 percent net return last year (after a 30 percent performance fee) on his $4.3 billion Caxton Global Investments fund underscores his long-proven ability to perform in difficult markets. The New York-based manager, whose firm Caxton Associates runs $8 billion, made money in 2008 off his renowned macro strategy, gaining 8.1 percent in the final quarter alone, mostly from fixed-income investments - adding to his reputation as a master of capital preservation. Kovner, 64, another member of the Alpha Hedge Fund Hall of Fame, has a more colorful past than most managers. Before coming to hedge funds, he studied New York from behind the wheel of a taxi, took up the harpsichord and worked as a consultant to the national Republican Party. In 1977 he took out a $3,000 credit card advance to finance a shot at commodities trading, and in 1983 founded Caxton with $13 million. He says his edge comes from maintaining his intellectual curiosity and ready flexibility. “One of the most important skills you need is to constantly reinvent where you put resources,” he told Alpha last year. “You must seek out undiscovered information.”
9. David Harding: Winton Capital Management $250 Million
In a year when wave riders ruled, futures trading pioneer David Harding was among the best of breed. The founder, managing director and head of research at London-based Winton Capital Management rode a number of trends - both up and down - including large moves in bonds, equity indexes and commodities (especially energy and grains). His $5.5 billion flagship Winton Futures Fund rose 21 percent. Most of its gains came early in the year: The fund was up 18 percent by the end of May, and then Harding, 47, went on defense, dumping a huge chunk of assets into U.S. Treasuries. Still, his firm, which was managing $13.3 billion at year-end, had about $500 million in redemptions. An honors graduate of Cambridge University, where he specialized in theoretical physics, Harding in 1987 co-founded Adam, Harding & Lueck, a quant shop eventually acquired by London-based Man Group. In 1997 he launched Winton, which uses computer-driven models. More than half its 180-member staff is devoted to research.
18. Kenneth Tropin: Graham Capital Management $120 Million
Trend-following was one of the few winning strategies of 2008, and Ken Tropin was among its most successful practitioners. All 13 of his funds at Graham Capital Management made money - including the one third of his assets that are described as discretionary - enabling him to return to the top-earners list for the first time since 2003. Most of his funds racked up big double-digit returns, ranging from 20 percent to 52 percent. The $4.7 billion Rowayton, Connecticut-based firm reaped profits in a variety of areas - commodities, currencies, equity indexes and fixed-income assets. Its equity bets did especially well when prices dropped in the first and fourth quarters. Tropin was helped by a move in the Japanese yen against the U.S. dollar. His firm also profited in metals and soft commodities. Tropin, 55, founded Graham Capital in 1994 as a quantitative macro hedge fund after nearly five years at the helm of managed-futures firm John W. Henry & Co.
22. Christian Baha: Superfund $85 Million
Superfund founder Christian Baha has defied the skeptics who snickered at his strategy of selling managed futures to the little guy. Baha, an Austrian who dropped out of college and in his TV commercials pokes fun at his accent and his inability to properly pronounce “investor,” allows clients to pony up as little as $5,000. His is a pure retail strategy that seems to toy with government restrictions on marketing. “I would love to tell you about Superfund, but regulations prevent me from describing it on television,” he says with a friendly smirk. Last year Baha’s Quadriga Superfund U.S. portfolios generated 30 percent average returns; they qualify as hedge funds because they include short positions and charge a 1.85 percent management fee and a 25 percent performance fee. His more aggressive overseas funds, some of which charge a 6 percent management fee and as much as 35 percent of profits, surged by 46 percent on average. Baha, 40, is one of seven systematic trend followers on this year’s list of top earners. A former police officer for the city of Vienna, he says his firm tracks 120 markets. Last year it was generally short global equity indexes and long many bond markets. In the first half of the year, it was long corn, gold, oil, soybeans and wheat and then shifted strategy, shorting many of those commodities. At year’s end it was managing $1.65 billion.
24. William Dunn: Dunn Capital Management $80 Million
Bill Dunn didn’t coin the phrase “the trend is your friend” - credit for that goes to the late Chicago commodities trader George Lane - but few investors have profited from that popular bit of Wall Street wisdom for as long as the 74-year-old Dunn. The chairman of Stuart, Florida-based Dunn Capital Management has generated a 19.4 percent net annualized composite return since he launched his original trading program in October 1974 in the throes of the OPEC-induced global economic meltdown. After a tough money-losing stretch in the middle of this decade, when there weren’t many long-term trends to follow, Dunn’s funds since September 2007 have soared, capitalizing on sharp price moves - both long- and short-term. His $168 million World Monetary and Agriculture program, founded in 1984, was up 51.5 percent last year. The much younger and larger Mosaic Program, a $222 million fund started in October 2006, surged by 94 percent. Both programs trade across several markets, including agriculture, currencies, energy, interest rates, metals and stock indexes. In the first half of 2008, Dunn went long on commodities, especially cattle, corn, oil and wheat. In the second half he shorted interest rates, stock indexes and certain currencies. He has been broadly short the past six months, explaining that he is worried that the U.S. is drifting toward socialism and that free-market capitalism is imperiled. Dunn, who has a Ph.D. in theoretical physics from Northwestern University, worked as an operations researcher and systems analyst for the Coast Guard, the Marine Corps, the Navy and the Department of Defense before switching to trading.
Who are the other trend followers on the list? I confess ignorance. They say 7 of 25 are. FYI, my new edition of Trend Following features Harding, Baha and Dunn.
(continue reading)Friday, March 27, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
TRADING MODELS
Overnight
Combination of ema4 and sma6-1.1
Daily check, ema7 and sma13
Daily Trading
Combination of ema2 and 3, 30 mins interval
Combination of ema5 and 6, 60 mins interval
Product CPO Futures
Overnight
Combination of ema4 and sma5
Daily check, ema5 and sma6
Daily Trading
Combination of ema2 and sma3, 15 and 30mins interval
Saturday, March 21, 2009
Best Values in Public Colleges for 2008-2009
Some surprising up-and-comers challenge familiar names
At the University of Virginia, the sense of history is as strong as the scent of boxwood. Students live and study in buildings designed by Thomas Jefferson. They tote their backpacks past fat white columns that line the walkways he created, duck into the gardens he envisioned and catch glimpses of the mountains he delighted in.
Some speak English as a second language and others with a Vuh-ginia drawl, but they all soon learn the vocabulary of this Academical Village. It's "The Grounds," not the campus; "The Lawn," not the quad; "first year," not freshman; and always, "Mr. Jefferson."
More from Kiplinger.com: • Test Your Financial Aid IQ • How to Safeguard College Savings Now • Ten College Towns for Grown-Ups |
Parents will likely have to pony up more, too, but that's nothing new. The average annual growth in total costs at public institutions has outpaced inflation by several percentage points over the past several decades, according to the College Board. Tuition has become a bigger part of the revenue pie as state appropriations have lagged. Don't expect prices to go down or state funding to go up soon, says Paul Lingenfelter, president of the State Higher Education Executive Office. "When times get tough, the path of least resistance is to restrain or even reduce higher-education spending."
Filling the Gap
As our rankings demonstrate, higher prices overall don't necessarily mean you'll pay more for your student's education. Financial-aid awards can knock thousands of dollars off the price tag, especially if your family qualifies for need-based aid. Of the top ten schools in our rankings, UNC-Chapel Hill, UVA and New College of Florida bestow enough need-based grant money to bring the average cost of in-state attendance to under $5,000 (less than the average price of a year at preschool).
If you earn too much to get in on those packages, click your heels and wish yourself to Georgia or Florida. At the University of Florida, number two in our rankings, and the University of Georgia, number four, in-state students who meet the academic criteria get to attend tuition-free, and many students qualify. Both states established the programs to keep top students within state borders.
Such merit scholarship programs, as well as the recent trend among elite private colleges and universities to extend need-based aid to higher-income families, have put pressure on other public universities to offer more and better aid to middle-class students.
UNC-Chapel Hill is no exception. Holden Thorp, the new chancellor, says the university plans to be "more competitive on the merit-aid side," perhaps by adopting a program similar to Florida's or Georgia's, using private funds. The university currently meets the full financial need of all its students and generally keeps loans to one-third of the financial-aid package for higher-income families.
It has no plans, however, to break faith with the Carolina Covenant, the financial-aid program that replaces loans with grants for families whose incomes fall at or below 200% of the federal poverty level -- about $40,000 for a family of four. UNC-Chapel Hill was the first major public institution to eliminate debt for low-income students, an undertaking that has since been adopted by more than 80 colleges and universities.
The school also established the Carolina College Advisory Corps, a program that identifies promising, low-income high school students around the state and encourages them to apply to colleges, including this flagship institution. Those who are admitted as Covenant scholars receive financial aid as well as ongoing academic support. The first class of Covenant scholars graduated in May, and "we're thrilled with how things have gone," says Thorp.
UNC students of every background have equal reason to be thrilled at the opportunity to share classrooms with other high-achieving students and learn from a nationally acclaimed faculty. The historic campus is undergoing a major refurbishing that includes the FedEx Global Education Center, a hub for international studies, as well as a state-of-the-art physical-science complex. Says Thorp, "The experience here is comparable to one you'd get at a major private research university, and we intend to keep it that way."
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Loan-Free Aid
John Casteen, longtime president of the University of Virginia, fiddles with a paper clip in his spacious office in Madison Hall as he recalls what it was like to be a first-year student at the University of Virginia. "My father was a shipyard worker in Portsmouth. My high school didn't send many students to college. I really struggled the first year. "I was dealing with a different set of academic demands and intense competition in an environment in which helping people was not the model. I had a crisis of confidence over the summer, and I realized I had to do something."
The next year, he dropped every activity except studying and working. "I taught myself how to be a good student," he says.
Several decades later, Kyle Mihalcoe of Sandston, Va., recalls his own crisis of confidence at the prospect of applying to UVA. "I come from a high school where the students are from a lower socioeconomic level. It's very diverse. We don't necessarily think of UVA as possible for us," says Mihalcoe. "I thought I wouldn't fit in here."
AccessUVA, a program similar to the Carolina Covenant, along with the College Guide program developed by UVA, gave Mihalcoe a chance to find out otherwise.
College Guide works with high schools that have a large number of low-income students to identify college candidates, brings in UVA graduates to help them apply and bird-dogs their applications. Access-UVA provides financial assistance once they've gained admission; students whose families are at or below 200% of the federal poverty level receive loan-free financial aid.
The university also limits need-based loans for higher-income students to 25% of the total in-state cost of a UVA education. "Throughout the 1990s, we struggled with a financial-aid budget that rarely got past 90% of what students needed," says Casteen.
"The effect was that our students, who had never used loans very much, began to build up debt." Concerned that undergraduates who borrowed heavily would be less likely to go to graduate school and more likely to settle for the first job they could get, the university came up with the 25% formula and committed to meeting the full need of every student.
UVA can afford that largess, owing to a decision to pump up fund-raising operations in 1991, when drastic budget cuts threatened its goal to become a major research institution. It now has a $5-billion endowment, which makes it one of the 25 wealthiest universities in the country. "Thirty years ago, the endowment was the icing on the cake," says COO Sandridge. "Today, it's very much the cake."
Patrick Tyler, a fourth-year student from New Orleans, happily pays out-of-state tuition to attend the University of Virginia. "In terms of the quality of the education you get and the connections you make, UVA is comparable to any institution in the country," says Tyler. "It's a flourishing intellectual environment. People here want to do great things for the world, but they're also very social."
Tyler lives in one of the original residence rooms on The Lawn, an honor accorded to outstanding fourth-year students. He loves the history his room represents, including the signature carved in the wall by Byrd Warwick, a student who lived in the same quarters more than a century ago. He also loves being in the middle of things. "The Lawn is very much a part of student life," says Tyler. "It's not a roped-off museum."
Mihalcoe decided to become part of that tradition in the spring of 2005, when he found out he had been awarded a loan-free package through AccessUVA. Now a fourth-year student, he spreads the word about the university's part in the bargain. "I love the fact that UVA believes its students' value to the community is worth so much more than the help it gives you to come here."
Unlike UVA's president, Mihalcoe had support from the start, beginning with a summer mentoring program that helped him feel part of this academical Village before he arrived in the fall.
"From the outside looking in, you might see UVA as standoffish, but once you're a student here, it's one of the most welcoming communities I've ever seen," says Mihalcoe. "From the first day I stepped on The Grounds as a UVA student, I fell in love. It instantly clicked. I knew this was the right place for me."
For the full list of 100 colleges, click here.
Candice Jones, Louis Jones and Stacy Rapacon helped compile the data for this special report.
IS MBA WORTHLESS?
Is It Time to Retrain B-Schools?
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
John Thain has one. So do Richard Fuld, Stanley O'Neal and Vikram Pandit. For that matter, so does John Paulson, the hedge fund kingpin.
Yes, all five have fat bank accounts, even now, and all have made their share of headlines. But these current and former giants of finance also are all card-carrying M.B.A.'s.
The master's of business administration, a gateway credential throughout corporate America, is especially coveted on Wall Street; in recent years, top business schools have routinely sent more than 40 percent of their graduates into the world of finance.
More from NYTimes.com: • Consumer Prices Rise on Gasoline and Clothing • What's in the New Student Loan Proposal • Delaying College for a Year Could Have Benefits |
But with the economy in disarray and so many financial firms in free fall, analysts, and even educators themselves, are wondering if the way business students are taught may have contributed to the most serious economic crisis in decades.
"It is so obvious that something big has failed," said Ángel Cabrera, dean of the Thunderbird School of Global Management in Glendale, Ariz. "We can look the other way, but come on. The C.E.O.'s of those companies, those are people we used to brag about. We cannot say, 'Well, it wasn't our fault' when there is such a systemic, widespread failure of leadership."
Critics of business education have many complaints. Some say the schools have become too scientific, too detached from real-world issues. Others say students are taught to come up with hasty solutions to complicated problems. Another group contends that schools give students a limited and distorted view of their role -- that they graduate with a focus on maximizing shareholder value and only a limited understanding of ethical and social considerations essential to business leadership.
Such shortcomings may have left business school graduates inadequately prepared to make the decisions that, taken together, might have helped mitigate the financial crisis, critics say.
"There are extraordinary things taking place in business education, and a lot that is very promising," said Judith F. Samuelson, executive director of the Business and Society Program at the Aspen Institute. "But what's the central theorem of business education? It's wanting."
Some employers and recruiters also question the value of an M.B.A., and are telling young people they can get better training on the job than in business school. A growing number are setting up programs to help employees develop skills in-house.
On many campuses, changes are under way in courses and curriculums. Some schools are heightening their focus on long-term thinking or leadership, and many are adding seminars to address the economic crisis.
Jay O. Light, the dean of Harvard Business School, argues that there have been imbalances both on campuses and in the economy. "We lived through an enormous extended period of financial good times, and people became less focused on risks and risk management and more focused on making money," he said. "We need to move that focus back toward the center."
Business schools have looked inward before, and some of the current problems may have stemmed from their last major self-examination. In the late 1950s, reports that the Ford and Carnegie foundations commissioned found mediocre faculty, and curriculums narrowly focused on vocational skills.
One of their recommendations was for business schools to become much more analytical and rigorous in their approach. And, over the years, that happened almost everywhere. Doctoral programs are commonplace. Professors conduct independent research and publish often in scholarly journals. Students learn complex models for analyzing competitive strategy, valuing options and more.
But schools may have gone too far in this direction, according to Warren Bennis, a professor of management at the University of Southern California. The schools suffer from "an overemphasis on the rigor and an underemphasis on relevance," he said. "Business schools have forgotten that they are a professional school."
Henry Mintzberg, a professor of management studies at McGill University in Montreal, also argues that because students spend so much time developing quick responses to packaged versions of business problems, they do not learn enough about real-world experiences.
For all of the emphasis on analytical rigor in business schools today, another major recommendation of the foundations' reports from the 1950s -- that business become a true profession, with a code of conduct and an ideology about its role in society -- got far less traction, said Rakesh Khurana, a professor at Harvard Business School and author of "From Higher Aims to Hired Hands," a historical analysis of business education.
Business schools, he said, never really taught their students that, like doctors and lawyers, they were part of a profession. And in the 1970s, he said, the idea took hold that a company's stock price was the primary barometer of success, which changed the schools' concept of proper management techniques.
Instead of being viewed as long-term economic stewards, he said, managers came to be seen as mainly as the agents of the owners -- the shareholders -- and responsible for maximizing shareholder wealth.
"A kind of market fundamentalism took hold in business education," Professor Khurana said. "The new logic of shareholder primacy absolved management of any responsibility for anything other than financial results."
Outwardly, at least, business schools look robust. For years, they have drawn some of the most talented students, and many top candidates are still applying. In fact, business school applications typically rise as the economy softens because potential students see graduate school as a haven from professional uncertainty.
Employers are making fewer recruiting trips to business schools this year, given the economy, but newly minted M.B.A.'s are still winning highly selective jobs in finance and consulting. A survey last year of M.B.A. candidates worldwide by the Graduate Management Admission Council, which administers the GMAT, found that 29 percent of incoming M.B.A. candidates were working in finance or consulting, and that 53 percent went into those industries upon graduating.
For universities, business education is a kind of cash cow. Business schools are less expensive to operate than graduate schools with elaborate labs and research facilities, and alumni tend to be generous with donations.
More from NYTimes.com: • Consumer Prices Rise on Gasoline and Clothing • What's in the New Student Loan Proposal • Delaying College for a Year Could Have Benefits |
Business education is big business, too. Some 146,000 graduate degrees in business were awarded in 2005-06, roughly one-fourth of the 594,000 graduate degrees awarded that school year, according to the Education Department.
Still, there have been signs that all is not well in business education. A study of cheating among graduate students, published in 2006 in the journal Academy of Management Learning & Education, found that 56 percent of all M.B.A. students cheated regularly -- more than in any other discipline. The authors attributed that to "perceived peer behavior" -- in other words, students believed everyone else was doing it.
Some employers are also questioning the value of an M.B.A. degree. A research project that two Harvard professors released in 2008 found that employers valued graduates' ability to think through complex business problems, but that something was still lacking.
"There is a need to broaden from the analytical focus of M.B.A. programs for more emphasis on skills and a sense of purpose and identity," said David A. Garvin, a professor of business administration and one of the project's authors.
Indeed, students themselves may welcome an emphasis on character skills. In surveys that the Aspen Institute regularly conducts, M.B.A. candidates say they actually become less confident during their time in business school that they will be able to resolve ethical quandaries in the workplace.
Business education "accentuates the simple technical pieces," said Ms. Samuelson of the Aspen Institute, and "ignores the real complexity and, frankly, the really exciting opportunities business has to be the driver of long-term prosperity."
A growing number of business schools are trying new approaches -- and many are finding valuable lessons to draw from the economic crisis.
At the Stern School of Business of New York University -- situated in what its dean, Thomas F. Cooley, called "the belly of the beast" in Lower Manhattan -- 33 professors recently wrote papers analyzing the crisis and offering policy recommendations that have been combined in a book to be published this month. A course that Stern offered on the book filled up minutes after it was announced, Mr. Cooley said.
Thomas Philippon, an assistant professor of finance at Stern, plans to incorporate the changed world into his class this fall. While he plans to keep discussing basic financial concepts and tools, he also plans to spend more time on concepts like systemic risk.
Professor Philippon also plans to inject a discussion of whether or not the market is always right when it values things. "You would not have had that discussion three years ago," he said.
Some schools had deep reviews of their curriculums under way even before the economic crisis unfurled.
Last year, Harvard Business School began a review pegged to its centennial, and it's considering ways to make courses more global. There will probably also be more emphasis on leadership skills, Dean Light said.
"I think we need to redouble our efforts," he said, "to make sure that even those people we send to financial services are first and foremost leaders who understand situations from a general management perspective."
More immediately, Harvard is assembling cases based on recent events -- issues involving accounting practices, for example, and JPMorgan Chase's acquisition of Bear Stearns.
In 2006, the Yale School of Management introduced a curriculum offering interdisciplinary perspectives on complex problems. It's also developing cases based on the financial crisis, and there are plans to devote sessions in the core curriculum to the crisis.
The Aspen Institute, meanwhile, is trying to change business education from the outside. It produces an annual report ranking business schools on how well they integrate social and environmental issues into curriculums. (Not all schools participate in its research, however.)
It has also developed a curriculum in conjunction with the Yale School of Management that is aimed at teaching students how to act upon their values at work. About 55 business schools, including those at Stanford, Northwestern and M.I.T, are using all or part of it in pilot programs.
There are also calls to make management a profession like law or medicine, with a code of conduct, a certification examination and continuing education.
Dean Cabrera of Thunderbird has been working with the United Nations Global Compact, which promotes standards for sustainable business practices, and led a task force in developing a set of "Principles for Responsible Management Education" that follow a similar philosophy. Roughly 200 business schools worldwide, including Thunderbird, have adopted them, though some of the best-known American schools are not on the list.
At the Yale School of Management, the new dean, Sharon M. Oster, has called for a renewed focus on the social value of management. "Business creates value in terms of services and products," she said. "That's what business delivers, just like medicine delivers a healthy person."
Professionalization is hardly a panacea. No one would argue that lawyers, doctors and accountants are immune from wrongdoing or poor judgment, and they have long been taking certification exams and promising to act ethically. It is also unclear who would monitor continuing education and what kind of certification would be required.
But surveys of business students show that they are starting to focus more on social issues and ethics, and that this could intensify talk of making managers' obligations to society more explicit.
"The challenge for a lot of business schools is how to develop leaders and not managers," said James Tran, a candidate for an M.B.A. and a master's in public administration at Harvard. Many of the top schools are moving in that direction, he said, but "I don't think they have actually figured out how to do that in the most effective way."
Madoff loses bail appeal as victims' rage revealed
Madoff loses bail appeal as victims' rage revealed
AFP - Saturday, March 21NEW YORK, (AFP) - - A US appeals court denied bail to Wall Street fraudster Bernard Madoff, as prosecutors highlighted public outrage in a slew of emails demanding retribution.
The three-judge panel at the US Court of Appeals in New York upheld a lower court's decision to jail Madoff prior to his June 16 sentencing, saying that the disgraced money manager might try to escape.
Madoff, 70, faces up to 150 years in prison for fraud, money laundering, perjury and theft. Friday's ruling effectively means he may never spend a night outside a cell again.
For Madoff's thousands of victims -- unaware over at least two decades that he was stealing billions of dollars worth of their investment funds -- a life sentence is barely enough.
Emails sent to the judge who presided during Madoff's guilty plea last week boil with anger at the once-respected money manager, as well as bewilderment at the slow pace of the probe into his giant fraud.
"You are a murderer.... You are a rapist.... You are a larcenist," a victim writes in one of approximately 100 emails released to the media by prosecutors.
"You must be void of any human emotion, which makes you truly evil," another writes.
Victims represented in the emails run the gamut of rich investors who lost millions in Madoff's Ponzi scheme to those who invested much smaller amounts and now find themselves bankrupted.
One suggests to the court that Madoff be made to work in a supermarket, clean public toilets and "stand on corners and announce in 101 ways how he's a creep."
An email writer who said his family had lost their entire savings likened the situation "to a domestic holocaust" and said "we are being tortured to live... in a nightmare of fear and the unknown."
Another theme of the emails is frustration that Madoff's immediate family members, who were closely involved with his business dealings, have not been charged.
Madoff says he acted alone. Legal experts believe his scheme -- in which he fooled clients into believing that he was investing their money on the stock market -- would have required considerable help.
On Wednesday, prosecutors charged only their second suspect, the accountant who allegedly rubber-stamped Madoff's fake financial statements.
Prosecutors have also moved to seize millions of dollars worth of assets registered to Madoff's wife Ruth and their two sons, although none of them has been accused of wrongdoing.
Calling Madoff the "epitome" of everything "messed up in our system," one email writer urged the court to "make an example out of him AND his trophy wife and their trophy apartment and their trophy treasure."
"Your family members you are working so deviously to protect should be forced to live at the same poverty you have forced your clients and friends into," another victim wrote.
Madoff was arrested December 11. Before his guilty plea last week, he was free on bail, living at his seven-million-dollar Manhattan apartment under tight surveillance.
Defense attorneys argued to the appeals court that Madoff was highly unlikely to flee or to commit further harm to the community, the chief criteria for whether or not a defendant can be allowed bail.
But prosecutors said he was a flight risk and, given his confession to having lived a life of fraud, could not be trusted.
The appeals court accepted this, saying "the defendant's age and his exposure to imprisonment are undisputed, and the court did not err in inferring an incentive to flee from these facts."
Madoff is now held in a correctional center in downtown Manhattan.
Prosecutors say his Ponzi fraud, where money from new investors was used to pay fake dividends to existing clients, was "unprecedented" in scale.
But Madoff's most powerful weapon, according to his victims, was simply his reputation as a safe and honest dealer.
He was a former chairman of the Nasdaq stock exchange, a noted Wall Street innovator, and a pillar of the wealthy and tight-knit Jewish community in Long Island and Florida.
Many of his thousands of victims were friends and respected figures from the worlds of finance, entertainment and charity.