Thursday, November 20, 2008

WALL STREET PLUNGES AGAIN AS PANIC SPREADS

Wall Street plunges again as panic spreads
AFP - Friday, November 21
NEW YORK (AFP) - - Wall Street shares plunged Thursday as panicked investors made a frenzied rush out of stocks and into bonds in the face of more weak data and a breakdown in efforts for a bailout for automakers.
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The main broad-market indicator sank to an 11-1/2-year low as investors ran for cover to the bond market, sending yields to all-time lows.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank to a fresh five-and-a-half year low, losing 444.99 points (5.56 percent) to end at 7,552.29 a day after a 427-point slide.
The Nasdaq lost 70.30 points (5.07 percent) to 1,316.12, its lowest close since 2003. The broad Standard & Poor's 500 plummeted 54.14 points (6.71 percent) to 752.44, the lowest finish since April 1997.
Elizabeth Harrow at Schaeffer's Investment Research said the market was pounded by "a seemingly endless barrage of dismal economic news."
The market wobbled most of the day and a sell-off accelerated as Democrats in Congress put off a vote on a bailout for crisis-hit "Big Three" automakers until at least December, and told industry chiefs to come up with a new rescue pitch.
Senate Majority leader Harry Reid said it was a "sad reality" that despite a bipartisan deal by senators from states which have millions of jobs depending on the industry, that there was not yet sufficient support for a bailout.
The news dimmed prospects for a key sector with the overall economy facing dire problems and unemployment rising.
"Sentiment on Wall Street took another severe blow with a late-day drop amid exacerbated economic woes and uncertainty toward the health of the US auto industry," said analysts at Charles Schwab & Co.
The latest economic news remained grim as the US Labor Department said new claims for unemployment benefits in the past week jumped to a 16-year high of 542,000.
"This is a horribly weak report on the labor market," said John Ryding at RDQ Economics.
The Conference Board meanwhile reported that its forward-looking index of leading economic indicators declined 0.8 percent in October.
"The economy is contracting, and the pace of contraction may intensify over the next few months," said Ken Goldstein, economist at the business research firm.
The market action came amid a global rout that saw a slide of 6.89 percent in Tokyo and hefty declines in Europe.
"There is no way to put lipstick on this pig," said Yves Smith, analyst at the financial website Naked Capitalism.
The panic pushed investors into bonds, breaking records for that market.
The yield on four-week Treasury bills fell to 0.045 percent and the three-month bill was yielding just 0.03 percent, as investors rushed for safety.
The 10-year Treasury bond yielded 3.022 percent, the lowest on record, after 3.391 percent Wednesday. The 30-year bond yield declined to 3.502 percent, the lowest since records were kept by the Federal Reserve in 1977, against 3.972 percent.
Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.
Ian Shepherdson, economist at High Frequency Economics, said the fear of deflation and worries about stocks could send bond yields even lower.
"This is all very exciting for bond investors but it also has macroeconomic implications," he said.
"Mortgage rates will drop over the next few weeks, though that alone won't revive activity as long as people are too scared to venture into the market."
In the troubled finance sector, Citigroup slid 26 percent to 4.71 dollars after a 23 percent plunge Wednesday, failing to get traction from news that Saudi Arabian Prince Alwaleed bin Talal would boost his stake in the banking group to five percent.
Bank of America dropped 13.9 percent to 11.25 dollars and JPMorgan Chase sank 17.9 percent to 23.38.
General Motors hit a 70-year low before rebounding 3.2 percent to 2.88 dollars, while Ford advanced 10.3 percent to 1.39 dollars, as investors speculated that a bailout plan may evenutally emerge.
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OIL FALLS - USD49.00

Oil falls to 3-year low below $49 in AsiaFriday November 21, 12:47 am ET By Alex Kennedy, Associated Press Writer
Oil falls to 3-year low below $49 as plunging stock markets batter investor confidence
SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices fell to a 3-year low below $49 a barrel Friday in Asia as plunging stock markets, driven down by more bad U.S. economic news, battered investor confidence.
Light, sweet crude for January delivery was down 95 cents to $48.47 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Singapore.
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The December contract, which expired Thursday, fell overnight by $4.00 to settle at $49.62 after sliding to $48.50, the lowest level since May 18, 2005.
"Sentiment is totally bearish, parallel to the stock market," said Gerard Rigby, an energy analyst at Fuel First Consulting in Sydney. "Everyone is just doom and gloom and not seeing any light on the horizon for the next 12 months."
Traders are worried that a global recession will undermine energy demand. Already, oil prices have tumbled by two-thirds from their peak of nearly $150 a barrel in mid-July.
The Dow Jones industrial average fell 5.6 percent Thursday to its lowest level since March 2003 after the Labor Department said new applications for jobless benefits exceeded analyst estimates and rose to the highest level of claims since July 1992.
The S&P 500 index fell 6.7 percent Thursday to an 11-year low. The S&P 500 has dropped more than 52 percent below its October 2007 record, making this the second-biggest bear market on record, exceeded only by the 83 percent drop between 1930 and 1932.
Asian stock markets followed their U.S. counterparts down Friday, but they pared losses as trading progressed. Japan's benchmark Nikkei index was down 1.2 percent, Hong Kong's Hang Seng index was down 1.4 percent. South Korea's key index was up 0.4 percent.
"$50 was a psychological support level," Rigby said. "Since we haven't traded this low for so long, it's hard to find a new support level."
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which accounts for about 40 percent of global supply, may cut production before its next official meeting on Dec. 17, Rigby said. OPEC President Chakib Khelil has signaled the group may announce output reductions at the meeting, but some members, such as Iran, have called for earlier cuts.
OPEC lowered production quotas by 1.5 million barrels a day last month.
"Their revenues are dropping so much, I think OPEC will have to call an extraordinary meeting and cut quotas to try to support the market," Rigby said. "Their last cut had zero impact on the market."
In other Nymex trading, gasoline futures fell 1.0 cent to 99.7 cents a gallon. Heating oil gained 2.14 cents to $1.65 a gallon while natural gas for December delivery slid 3.8 cents to $6.28 per 1,000 cubic feet.
In London, December Brent crude fell 68 cents to $47.40 on the ICE Futures exchange.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

World leaders move toward tougher financial rules

World leaders move toward tougher financial rules

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U.S. President George W. Bush greets President Hu Jintao of China as he arrives AP – U.S. President George W. Bush greets President Hu Jintao of China as he arrives at the North Portico …

WASHINGTON – World leaders prepared Friday to adopt an early warning system for financial calamities, a commitment to tougher accounting rules and other modest steps to try to prevent future crises like the one now threatening the livelihoods of billions of people around the globe.

Nearly two dozen leaders assembled in Washington on Friday in the largest gathering of its kind here in nearly a decade. They dined in extravagance at the White House in a prelude to a day of closed-door negotiations Saturday over how best to wrestle both large and developing economies back from the brink of economic disaster.

The leaders were on track to approve measures to make the world financial system more accountable to investors and more transparent to regulators, diplomatic sources said. To do so, the leaders were expected to endorse more effective accounting rules governing how companies value their assets, a weakness seen as partly responsible for the current financial crisis.

The sources, speaking on condition of anonymity because leaders had yet to give formal approval to the draft communique, said the emerging agreement also calls for steps to sharpen the world's eyes watching for the kind of dangerous investing that led to the present chaos.

A new early warning system would look for signs of burgeoning problems like those in the U.S. housing market and related overuse of mortgage-backed securities. On Friday, the heads of the International Monetary Fund, the world's financial firefighter, and the Financial Stability Forum, a group that includes central banks and major financial regulators, said they would cooperate on "early warning exercises" to detect vulnerabilities.

Also, a new "college of supervisors" would gather global regulators tasked with scrutinizing the world's largest financial institutions together to compare notes as they seek to spot excessive risk-taking.

Altogether, the U.S. preference for boosting oversight of shaky financial markets seemed to be holding sway over Europe's desire for tougher internationally enforced regulation.

"Billions of hardworking people are counting on us," Bush said on a night when urgent motorcades swept presidents and prime ministers through a dark Washington mist to the White House.

A second summit is envisioned in early spring, after Barack Obama becomes president. The first meeting, called by President George W. Bush, falls in a period of transition that inevitably leaves unclear what actions the U.S. is ready to take in the months ahead.

The president-elect stayed away from the meeting, but designated former Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former Rep. Jim Leach to represent him in meetings with leaders on the sidelines. They saw the leaders of Argentina, Mexico and South Korea on Friday and had talks scheduled with lower-level representatives from several other nations both Friday and Saturday.

Leaders from Britain, France, Germany, Russia, China and India were among those in Washington.

The summit, meant to be the first in a series, has a two-pronged agenda: Discuss what might still need to be done to turn the world's economies back from the edge of disaster and explore ways to revamp the global financial system's architecture to prevent similar meltdowns in the future.

New reminders of the urgency facing the leaders came even as they poured toward the U.S. capital city from around the globe. The government reported that sales by American retailers fell by a record amount last month. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke hinted at another interest rate cut to encourage consumers. The Dow Jones industrials dropped 338 points.

Fearing another Wall Street plunge if the summit produces little, the White House has been lowering expectations as fast as other nations have been raising them.

"This problem did not develop overnight and it will not be solved overnight," Bush said in a dinner toast.

The agreement lacks big, splashy elements, such as the establishment of a single global regulator or strict new regulation of financial firms or products.

Europeans had wanted to close loopholes that allow some financial institutions to evade regulation. They also want to ensure supervision for all major financial players, including credit ratings agencies or funds carrying high amounts of debt. They want a pledge for concrete changes in just 100 days.

But Bush bet that including developing nations such as China, India and Brazil in the talks would act as a brake on any push for intrusive regulation. Red-hot emerging economies bristle at being restricted just as they are trying to catch up to the developed world.

Even the part of the agreement that lays blame avoids specifically pointing a finger primarily where many wanted it: what they see as a freewheeling U.S. system where easy credit, risky investing and lax oversight have become the norm. Indeed, the crisis started when the bubble in the U.S. housing market burst in August, leading to a ripple effect of events as mortgage-related investments soured, financial companies suffered huge losses and lending locked into a freeze that spread around the globe.

The agreement says broadly that policymakers and regulators failed to address the risks building up in financial markets.

Before leaders arrived, Bush warned for the second day in a row of the dangers — in his view — of overeager government intervention. He said "reforms in the financial sector are essential" but that strict new regulations would crush the global economy instead of protect it.

He got a boost from British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, who used rhetoric similar to Bush's in talking about a need to keep trade flowing and markets free. "Protectionism is the road to ruin," Brown told the Council on Foreign Relations in New York.

Brown has been among the leaders pushing for nations at the summit to pledge coordinated stimulus spending worldwide to combat the downturn that is squeezing millions of families and businesses.

Bush, however, cautioned that the billions of dollars being spent already by the U.S. and other countries should be given a chance to work.

"Our actions are having an impact," Bush said in his Saturday radio address, taped Friday and released early by the White House. "The United States and our partners are taking the right steps to get through the crisis."

Deeply skeptical, protesters staged demonstrations and their chants could be faintly heard as leaders arrived in a misty rain at the White House for the working dinner.

In a sign of the complicated arrangements necessary to house and host the largest gathering of government heads in Washington since NATO's 50th anniversary in 1999, Perino noted it would take 300 or 400 cars to accomplish the highly choreographed feat of bringing the leaders to dinner.

Bush, alone without his wife, greeted each of his guests individually as they pulled up to the North Portico, with smiles and back pats for most, a protocol-laden process that took over 75 minutes. The leaders then ate with him in the State Dining Room, working for about two hours over a gourmet meal of quail, lamb and fondue accompanied by fancy wines.

___

Associated Press writers Martin Crutsinger, Michael Fischer, Jeannine Aversa, Eileen Sullivan and David Stringer contributed to this report.

Friday, November 14, 2008

AIG Financial Products Corp

AIG Financial Products Corp

AIG’s Financial Services businesses specialize in aircraft and equipment leasing, capital markets, consumer finance and insurance premium finance. These businesses complement AIG’s core insurance operations and achieve a competitive advantage by capitalizing on opportunities throughout AIG’s global network.

Founded in 1987 as one of the first companies in the United States focused principally on OTC derivatives markets, AIG Financial Products Corp. (AIGFP) has built a unique, client-oriented platform that today is truly global in scope. AIGFP acts as principal in nearly all of its transactions, providing clients and partners with a broad spectrum of capital markets offerings and tailored corporate finance, investment and financial risk management solutions. Relying on small teams of seasoned professionals based in the world’s leading business centers, AIGFP is well-known for its innovative problemsolving capabilities and track record of identifying new areas for growth. Over the past year, AIGFP played key roles in the acquisition of London City Airport and, in one of the largest private equity transactions announced in 2006, the management-led buyout of Kinder Morgan Inc.

AIGFP’s new product leadership and expertise in the area of commodity derivatives and commodity indices have helped stimulate the development of this new asset class with historical return characteristics that can help diversify a well-balanced portfolio. AIGFP’s sponsorship of a major study on the historical performance of commodity futures by two academic colleagues, Professor Gary Gorton and Professor K. Geert Rouwenhorst, has advanced investor awareness of the asset class and the firm’s standing as a market leader. In a similar vein, AIGFP has created a specialized credit business, distinguishing itself as a provider of super senior investment grade credit protection and a unique credit-oriented asset manager.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent

Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent
Friday November 7, 9:09 am ET
By Jeannine Aversa, AP Economics Writer

Jobless rate bolts to 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October; 240,000 jobs cut
WASHINGTON (AP) -- The nation's unemployment rate bolted to a 14-year high of 6.5 percent in October as another 240,000 jobs were cut, stark proof the economy is almost certainly in a recession.

The new snapshot, released Friday by the Labor Department, showed the crucial jobs market deteriorating at an alarmingly rapid pace.

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The jobless rate zoomed to 6.5 percent in October from 6.1 percent in September, matching the rate in March 1994.

Unemployment has now surpassed the high seen after the last recession in 2001. The jobless rate peaked at 6.3 percent in June 2003.

October's decline marked the 10th straight month of payroll reductions, and government revisions showed that job losses in August and September turned out to be much deeper. Employers cut 127,000 positions in August, compared with 73,000 previously reported. A whopping 284,000 jobs were axed in September, compared with the 159,000 jobs first reported.

So far this year, a staggering 1.2 million jobs have disappeared. Over half of the decrease occurred in the past three months alone.

About 10.1 million people were unemployed in October, an increase of 2.8 million over the past year. A year ago, the unemployment rate stood at 4.8 percent.

The employment market is much weaker than economists expected. They were forecasting the unemployment rate to climb to 6.3 percent in October and for payrolls to fall by around 200,000.

Job losses were widespread, reflecting the mounting carnage from a trio of crises -- housing, credit and financial.

Factories cut 90,000 jobs, the most since July 2003. Construction companies got rid of 49,000 jobs with heavy losses in home building. Retailers cut payrolls by 38,000. Professional and business services reduced employment by 45,000. Financial activities cut 24,000 jobs, with heavy losses in mortgage banking and at securities firms. Leisure and hospitality axed 16,000 positions.

All those losses more than swamped some gains elsewhere, including in the government, as well as in education and health care.

Racing to assemble his new Democratic Cabinet, President-elect Barack Obama will huddle with economic advisers later on Friday. His team has been in close contact with the Bush administration to pave the way for a smooth hand-off of power.

All the economy's woes -- a housing collapse, mounting foreclosures, hard-to-get credit and financial market upheaval -- will confront Obama when he assumes office early next year. And, the employment situation is likely to get worse.

Many expect the jobless rate to climb to 8 percent, possibly higher, next year. In the 1980-1982 recession, the unemployment rate rose as high as 10.8 percent before inching down.

To provide fresh relief, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Democrats, in a lame-duck session later this month, are pushing to enact another round of economic stimulus of around $100 billion.

Average hourly earnings rose to $18.21 in October, a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month, according to the Labor Department report. Over the past year, wages have grown 3.5 percent, but paychecks aren't stretching that far because high food, energy and other prices has propelled overall inflation at a faster pace.

To prevent the country from sinking into a deep and painful recession, the Federal Reserve last week ratcheted down interest rates to 1 percent and left the door open to further reductions.

The economy has lost its footing in just a few months. It contracted at a 0.3 percent pace in the July-September quarter, signaling the onset of a likely recession. It was the worst showing since 2001 recession, and reflected a massive pullback by consumers.

As U.S. consumers watch jobs disappear, they'll probably retrench even further, spelling more trouble for the sinking economy.

That's why analysts predict the economy is still shrinking in the current October-December quarter and will contract further in the first quarter of next year. All that more than fulfills a classic definition of a recession: two straight quarters of contracting economic activity.


Thursday, November 6, 2008

DBS Group to pay out S$70m to S$80m compensation

DBS Group to pay out S$70m to S$80m compensation

By JOSEPH CHIN


PETALING JAYA: DBS Group Holdings Ltd estimates that it will have to pay out between S$70mil to S$80mil in compensation to investors in Singapore and Hong Kong for losses on structured notes tied to failed Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc.

In a press statement, DBS said yesterday since the collapse of Lehman Brothers on Sept 15, it was deeply concerned about DBS customers in Singapore and Hong Kong who had invested in the structured products as a reference entity.

It said nobody could have imagined the extent of the fallout from the US sub-prime crisis, or the collapse of the venerable 158-year-old institution like Lehman Brothers and the toll it would take on investors.

These products were sold to 4,700 customers in Singapore and Hong Kong who invested S$360mil. In Singapore, 1,400 DBS customers invested S$103mil in the notes, known as High notes 5.

Of these customers, two-thirds of them are from DBS Treasuries, which caters to customers with a minimum of S$200,000 cash and/or investments, and 80% below the age of 60.

DBS chief executive officer Richard Stanley said he was deeply anguished about the faced by the customers.

“Every customer is important to us and in casaes where our standards are not met, DBS will not hesitate to make cash compensation,” he said.

DBS said it had found a number of cases which did not meet DBS’ standards and the bank would compensate these customers from Friday.

“Based on the number of cases we have reviewed, we estimate the total customer compensation in Singapore and Hong Kong will be in the range of S$70mil to S$80mil,” it said.

UK interest rates slashed to 3%

UK interest rates slashed to 3%

Interest rate graph

The Bank of England has made a shock one-and-a-half percentage point cut in UK interest rates to 3%, the lowest level since 1955.

The size of the cut - the most dramatic since 1981 - signals the Bank's concern the UK is heading for a long recession, the BBC's economics editor says.

Mortgage lenders are now under pressure to pass the cut on to borrowers.

But due to the unexpected size of the cut, most banks have not yet decided how much of it to pass on.

"I think it's essential that the banks do pass on the benefit of lower interest rates to people and to businesses," Chancellor Alistair Darling said.

"Banks need to understand that they need to help their customers."

'Bigger than expected'

The BBC's economics editor Hugh Pym said the Bank of England was clearly concerned about the possibility of a prolonged recession in the UK.

This was evident from the Bank's use of terms such as "very marked deterioration in the outlook" and "severe contraction", he said.

Didn't we the taxpayers bail out the banks? Weren't we told that in return the Treasury had demanded strict conditions?
Nick Robinson, BBC political editor

Shadow chancellor George Osborne said: "This is a shot in the arm for the economy, but it shows how sick the patient is."

Traders on the London market were also concerned about the message the cut conveyed. As a result, the FTSE 100 share index closed down 5.6%, or 255 points at 4,275.7.

The UK cut was followed by a less dramatic move from the European Central Bank, which lowered eurozone interest rates from 3.75% to 3.25%, to try to boost economic growth in the region.

What's more, the global financial body the IMF sharply revised down its forecasts for economic growth around the world in 2009.

It predicted that developed economies as a whole would contract next year for the first time since World War Two.

Mortgage fears

The hefty cut will automatically reduce monthly repayments for those with tracker deals that are linked to the Bank rate by about £134 on an average £150,000 mortgage.

Chancellor Alistair Darling calls for banks to take action

However, there have been concerns that a cut in the Bank of England's base rate might not be passed on to other borrowers.

Given the surprise level of the Bank rate cut, mortgage lenders will take their time to decide whether they will pass on cuts to standard variable rate (SVR)mortgage holders, which account for up to 10% of total home loans.

The major lenders said rates were "under review", however Lloyds TSB has promised to pass on the rate cut in full to its standard variable rate mortgage customers.

The group, which also lends through Cheltenham & Gloucester, said its SVR, currently 6.5%, would never be more than 2% above Bank of England base rate. Abbey has also passed on the cut in full to SVR customers.

Customers on fixed-rate deals - about 50% of the market - will see no change to their repayments until they come to the end of their current deal.

But major lenders have been withdrawing nearly all tracker rate deals for new borrowers as they wait to see how the industry reacts to the cut.

The cut is likely to hit savers who face a reduction in the interest rates they receive from their deposits.

'The right call'

The move has been broadly welcomed by business bodies and trade unions.

UK MORTGAGES BREAKDOWN
Pie chart showing proportions of UK mortgages that are fixed-rate, discounted or standard variable

Richard Lambert, CBI director-general, said: "This is a bold and welcome move by the Monetary Policy Committee, and achieves what the CBI had been calling for."

He added: "This cut should help to ease conditions in the credit markets, and allow banks to pass the benefits on to their customers."

The TUC's head of economics Adam Lent said the move was "the right call".

"It shows the Bank now understands that the problem is recession not inflation."

Meanwhile, the Institute of Directors (IoD) said interest rates could touch record lows of 2% or less by this time next year.

"The sooner we get interest rates down the less is the risk of a long and deep recession," said IoD chief economist Graeme Leach.

Manufacturing decline

The Bank of England's interest rate move came after a series of figures released this week provided further evidence that the UK economy is sliding towards recession.

New figures from the Halifax showed house prices fell by another 2.2% in October, pushing the drop in house prices to 13.7% over the past year.

Activity in the service sector, the backbone of the UK economy, shrank in October for the sixth month in a row.

According to an index compiled by the Chartered Institute of Purchase and Supply output from services was at its lowest level since its poll began in 1996.

Also, the Office for National Statistics said that manufacturing output fell for a seventh month in September - the longest run of monthly declines since 1980.

Manufacturing output fell by 0.8% in September, much worse than analysts' expectations, making output 2.3% lower than a year earlier, the sharpest decline since May 2003.