Wednesday, November 5, 2008

President Obama's First Step: Reset Expectations

President Obama's First Step: Reset Expectations

Posted Nov 05, 2008 12:15pm EST by Henry Blodget in Newsmakers, Recession, Election

From ClusterStock, Nov. 5, 2008:

If President Elect Obama were the incoming CEO of a corporation, he would now be preparing for the first act of his tenure: A massive write-off of the mountains of rotted junk buried on the company's balance sheet and an announcement that recovery will take a long, long time.

This flush would clear the way for several years of better than expected results. It would also take advantage of the new leader's one chance to blame the sorry state of the organization on his sorry predecessor.

President Obama began this process last night, in his victory speech, when he noted that restoring the country's health might take more than a term. In the next few weeks, he should go well beyond this:

  • The deficit will be more than $1 trillion a year for several years
  • The country needs a massive new fiscal stimulus
  • The housing market will continue to decline through at least 2010
  • Interest rates and taxes will eventually have to rise (after the economy stabilizes)
  • Weak corporations have to be allowed to fail
  • Millions of homeowners will lose their house
  • Unemployment will probably rise to 10%
  • The government simply cannot "bail the country out" -- not because it lacks the will, but because it lacks the power

In short, Obama needs to acknowedge reality, erring on the side of overstating the problems and challenges, and he needs to prepare the country for several tough years. Because if he doesn't, within six months of his taking office, the country will have forgotten all about the prior administration and will instead be blaming everything on him.

Gov. Sarah Palin in Tears After Loss

Gov. Sarah Palin in Tears After Loss

By Us Magazine40 minutes ago
Story photo: Gov. Sarah Palin in Tears After LossSarah Palin looks on during a concession speech by Senator John McCain of Arizona, Republican presidential nominee, outside the Biltmore Hotel in Phoenix, Arizona, U.S., on Tuesday, Nov. 4, 2008.Us Magazine
Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin had tears in her eyes as John McCain gave his concession speech Tuesday night in Arizona.

He called his running mate (and self-described "hockey mom") "one of the best campaigners I have ever seen and an impressive new voice in our party for reform and the principles that have always been our greatest strength."

That line received the loudest applause of the night.

Look back at photos of Palin-McCain on the campaign trail.

McCain chose Palin the nation's first female Republican vice presidential nominee and the butt of Saturday Night Live jokes to hopefully win the votes of Democratic and independent women. Shortly after he announced the news, she confirmed reports that her 17-year-old daughter Brisol was five months pregnant.

After a rousing speech at the Republican National Convention (she famously called herself a pit bull in "lip stick"), however, Palin's popularity slipped.

She came under fire after it was revealed that the Republican National Committee shelled out more than $150,000 to dress her.

Polls also showed that men accounted for most of her support.

On Tuesday, only about four in 10 voters told exit pollsters that they found Palin -- who had come under fire for rocky press interviews -- qualified to lead the nation, according to reports.

Palin blamed the media for the reason why some female voters didn't fully embrace her.

"You have to consider that there has been the constant barrage, a kind of spin on my record or my positions," she said on ABC's 20/20 last week.

Some experts predict Palin's political future is far from over, suggesting that she could run in 2012.

Asked if she made any regrets along the way, Palin told Fox News on Tuesday: "I just wish there was more hours in the day so we could've gotten around to more areas of our country."

More news from Usmagazine.com

Obama urged to shape new economic order

Obama urged to shape new economic order

By Keith Weir

LONDON (Reuters) - Political leaders urged U.S. President-elect Barack Obama on Wednesday to help forge a new economic order to lead the world out of its worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

Nigerians celebrate U.S. President-elect Senator Barack Obama's (D-IL) historic White House victory in Lagos November 5, 2008. (REUTERS/Akintunde Akinleye)

Excitement about the election of Democrat Obama as the first black U.S. President was tempered by an awareness of the challenges he faces as the world's biggest economy labours in recession.

"We need to change the current crisis into a new opportunity. We need a new deal for a new world," said European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso.

"I sincerely hope that with the leadership of President Obama, the United States of America will join forces with Europe to drive this new deal," he added.

Underlining the economic woes Obama faces, U.S. private employers cut a larger-than-expected 157,000 jobs in October, a report by a private employment service showed.

Initial market reaction to the election was sober, with the dollar retreating against the pound and the euro and Wall Street expected to fall after an election-day rally.

European shares were down two percent, but Asian stocks earlier closed at three-week highs.

"The market is maybe reflecting the hard work ahead and difficult economic circumstances new president Barack Obama has inherited," said Keith Bowman, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown.

Obama does not take office until January, leaving outgoing President George W. Bush to host a summit of world leaders in Washington on Nov. 15 to discuss the global financial crisis which has its roots in the collapse of the U.S. housing market.

RATE CUTS AMID THE GLOOM

That summit will tackle new ways to regulate the world's financial sector as the world heads into recession.

Authorities are trying to soften the impact of the downturn with support for banks, cheaper lending and stimulus measures, which have already amounted to around $4 trillion.

Germany's cabinet agreed a package of measures on Wednesday to give Europe's biggest economy a 50 billion euro ($64.2 billion) boost and protect about 1 million jobs, following a 500 billion euro bank rescue package last month.

It includes extra funds for small and medium-sized firms to borrow, tax breaks on new cars and funding for infrastructure projects and building work.

Gloomy data from Britain and the 15-nation euro zone added to expectations of hefty interest rate cuts on Thursday.

British manufacturing output fell for the seventh month running to mark the longest stretch of declines in 28 years.

In the euro zone, service sector activity touched a fresh decade low in October while retail sales declined in September.

The Bank of England and the European Central Bank are expected to cut their rates on Thursday by at least 50 points, having cut four weeks ago as part of a coordinated round.

TREASURY TASKS

Obama will move quickly to appoint his top team.

The next Treasury secretary, who could be named within days, will inherit one of the hottest seats in Washington, faced both with piloting a $700 billion bailout package and the regulatory reform needed to prevent a repeat of the crisis.

The shortlist likely includes former Treasury secretary Lawrence Summers, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Paul Volcker and Timothy Geithner, head of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Obama has advocated a second government stimulus package worth $175 billion that would include money for investments in infrastructure as well as another round of tax rebates.

The U.S. Treasury is expected to announce on Wednesday the return of the three-year note when it sets out plans for borrowing which could total $2.1 trillion in the current fiscal year, to fund its massive bailout programme.

PAYBACK TIME?

The financial crisis, which stemmed from a U.S. housing market collapse, has redrawn the banking landscape and authorities are pushing for changes to its corporate culture.

Italy will approve a plan to support banks next week, which could use convertible bonds or preferred shares, Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi said.

The Italian government is also working on measures to help families and businesses, and one "important" bank will announce an extra 5 billion euros of loans available to small and medium-sized firms, Berlusconi said.

A source close to the matter said that bank was Unicredit.

Swiss bank UBS AG said its chairman and board may repay previously granted bonuses as part of a report on pay at the company due at a shareholder meeting later this month.

European earnings did little to lift the gloom, with a recurring trend of falling profits and rising bank provisions.

France's biggest bank BNP Paribas posted a 55.6 percent fall in third-quarter profits.

ArcelorMittal, the world's largest steelmaker, forecast a weaker final quarter, slashed output and froze growth plans.

(Additional reporting by Reuters bureaus worldwide)

Copyright © 2008 Reuters

EPF down from 11% to 8%

EPF down from 11% to 8%


PETALING JAYA: Employees can choose to reduce their EPF contributions to increase their disposable income next year.

The Government has allowed employees to reduce their contributions by three percentage points from 2009 to 2011.

Presently, the employer’s EPF contribution is 12% while employees contribute 11%.

“With the reduction, the total contribution is still at a reasonable rate of 20%, which is 12% from the employer and 8% from employee,” said Deputy Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Tun Razak.

Najib, who is also Finance Minister, said if all contributors chose to reduce their contributions, it would come up to RM4.8bil annually.

“Assuming that only 50% of contributors take up the option, private spending is expected to go up by RM2.4bil,” he said.

“A person earning RM2,000 could gain an extra disposable income of RM60 monthly, while one earning RM6,000 will have an extra RM180 to spend.”

On the RM5bil fund injection into government investing agency Valuecap to stimulate capital market activity, Najib said similar moves had been implemented in other countries such as the Tracker Fund in Hong Kong in 1998, and recently by Qatar Investment Authority and the largest pension fund in Korea.

“The extra fund is acquired from EPF loans which is guaranteed by the Government. Therefore, the loan does not only guarantee higher returns compared with deposit rates from banking institutions but is also a minimum risk investment to EPF,” he said.

But, some workers’ unions felt that savings will be reduced and it will affect the people’s retirement funds.

National Union of Bank Employees (NUBE) secretary general J. Solomon said he hoped that the voluntary offer was only for the time being during the economic crisis.

MTUC president Syed Shahir Syed Mohamud said that reduced savings would not benefit contributors.

“When savings go down it will be followed by a decrease in divide

Critic Back for More & Angry This Time!

Blog: Critic Back for More & Angry This Time!

Michael Covel / November 04, 2008

My critic here just responded with more:

“You decide to highlight the good results, but happily bury the poor results in tables of data.”

Do you consider chapter 2 and 3 of my book “Trend Following” buried? Entire chapters of a book in print for years is hidden away? Maybe you should go back and do some reading to at least have a decent argument. He continues:

“I have not seen the numbers for Campbell, Chesapeake et al (the big boys with yards of dollars under management), but am reasonably sure they will not put up Oct. numbers anywhere close to Henry’s comparatively tiny Financial and Metals fund.”

Perhaps, you should take a read of chapter 11 of my book “The Complete TurtleTrader”. You do follow that Henry has always been more aggressive and other trend traders shoot for less returns? It is a choice. People choose differently, but I get your argument that I am secretly duping people with incomplete information. I also understand that for the sake of your argument the hundreds of thousands of words in my books must be put to the side and ignored! He continues:

“If you are paid consulting fees by John Henry and Company please disclose this to your readers.”

There you go, get the anger out! I have no relationship with JWH, just respect for his entrepreneurial abilities. He continues:

“I also like how you like to write in absolutes as it obviously sells more books and draws attention to your blog. ‘The folks that did great during those periods due to the credit bubble all blew out in October 08. Trend traders survived. ‘ Your quote lacks honesty and highlights how you chose to cherry pick data.”

You are really worked up today! You got me. I am dishonest to the core. I spend my days thinking up ways to explain trading performance & traders all in a secretive, manipulative way to fool the little guy who apparently can only read that trend followers did well in October 2008. If I follow your logic this will then cause him to invest all of his money tomorrow and possibly lose it all cause he didn’t unerstand the risks. What else you got in your bag of arguments?

(continue reading)

Saturday, September 20, 2008

BAN SHORT SALES - SHOULD NOT HAVE HAPPEN

Ban Short Sales?

From Trader Daily comes some nice sarcasm:

Stocks have lost $3 trillion in value globally this week and someone’s got to pay for that. But who? The hedge funds, of course. After all, didn’t they bring us tooth decay, Lou Gherig’s disease, cancer and government-created killer nano robot infection? The answer is yes, naturally. Certainly stocks taking such a beating is not an indication of their lack of desirability (really, who does not want to buy a boatload of financials right now?) but of the presence of pernicious forces at work that must be stamped out. Here’s how the U.S. and U.K. are once again teaming up to fight the latest wave of global evildoers. Think of them as financial terrorists. And remember, we are not halting the basic functions of our beloved financial system without good reason. We are fighting for our freedom.

WORLD BIGGEST BAILOUT - RM700BILLION (RM2.4TRILLION)

By JULIE HIRSCHFELD DAVIS and DEB RIECHMANN, Associated Press Writers 7 minutes ago

WASHINGTON - The Bush administration asked Congress on Saturday for the power to buy $700 billion in toxic assets clogging the financial system and threatening the economy as negotiations began on the largest bailout since the Great Depression.

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The rescue plan would give Washington broad authority to purchase bad mortgage-related assets from U.S. financial institutions for the next two years. It does not specify which institutions qualify or what, if anything, the government would get in return for the unprecedented infusion.

Democrats are pressing to require that the plan help more strapped borrowers stay in their homes and to condition the bailout on new limits on executive compensation.

Congressional aides and administration officials are working through the weekend to fill in the details of the proposal. The White House hoped for a deal with Congress by the time markets opened Monday; top lawmakers say they would push to enact the plan as early as the coming week.

"We're going to work with Congress to get a bill done quickly," President Bush said at the White House. Without discussing specifics, he said, "This is a big package because it was a big problem."

The proposal is a mere three pages long, but it gives sweeping powers to the government to dispense gigantic sums of taxpayer dollars in a program that would be sheltered from court review.

"It's a rather brief bill with a lot of money," said Sen. Chris Dodd, D-Conn., the Banking Committee chairman. "We understand the importance of the anticipation in the markets, but we also know that what we're doing is going to have consequences for decades to come. There's not a second act to this — we've got to get this right."

Lawmakers digesting the eye-popping cost and searching for specifics voiced concerns that the proposal offers no help for struggling homeowners or safeguards for taxpayers' money.

The government must bail out the financial system "because if we don't, it will have a tremendous impact on American consumers, homeowners, taxpayers and the rest," House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., said in San Francisco.

But, she added, "We cannot deal with this unless this bailout helps families stay in their homes."

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev. said "we cannot allow ourselves to be in denial about the threat now facing the world economy. From all indications, that threat is real, and the consequences of inaction could be catastrophic. Every single American has a stake in preventing a global financial meltdown."

The proposal would raise the statutory limit on the national debt from $10.6 trillion to $11.3 trillion to make room for the massive rescue.

"The American people are furious that we're in this situation, and so am I," the House's top Republican, Ohio Rep. John A. Boehner, said in a statement. "We need to do everything possible to protect the taxpayers from the consequences of a broken Washington."

Signaling what could erupt into a brutal fight with Democrats over add-on spending, Boehner said "efforts to exploit this crisis for political leverage or partisan quid pro quo will only delay the economic stability that families, seniors, and small businesses deserve."

Bush said he worried the financial troubles "could ripple throughout" the economy and affect average citizens. "The risk of doing nothing far outweighs the risk of the package. ... Over time, we're going to get a lot of the money back."

He added, "People are beginning to doubt our system, people were losing confidence and I understand it's important to have confidence in our financial system."

Neither presidential candidate took a position on the proposal. GOP nominee John McCain said he was awaiting specifics and any changes by Congress.

Democratic rival Barack Obama used the party's weekly radio address to call for help for Main Street as well as Wall Street.

Their language reflected a tricky balance that politicians in both parties are trying to strike, just six weeks before Election Day: Back a plan that doles out hundreds of billions to companies that made bad bets and still identify with the plight of middle-class voters.

Besides mortgage help and executive compensation limits, Democrats are considering attaching middle-class assistance to the legislation despite a request from Bush to avoid adding items that could delay action. An expansion of jobless benefits was one possibility.

Bush sidestepped questions about the chances of adding such items, saying that now was not the time for posturing. "I think most leaders would understand we need to get this done quickly, and you know, the cleaner the better," he said about legislation being drafted.

Treasury officials met congressional staff for about two hours on Capitol Hill on Saturday. Discussions centered on how the plan would work, and Democrats proposed adding the executive compensation limits and new foreclosure-prevention measures. Details of those changes were not available Saturday. Bush and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson conferred by phone for about 20 minutes in the afternoon, gauging how the negotiations were unfolding.

Among the key issues up for negotiation is which financial institutions would be eligible for the help. The proposed legislation doesn't make it clear, leaving open the question of whether hedge funds or pension funds could qualify.

On Saturday night, Treasury released a fact sheet stating that eligible financial institutions "must have significant operations in the U.S." unless Paulson determines, after consulting with Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, that "broader eligibility is necessary to effectively stabilize financial markets."

The proposal does not require that the government receive anything from banks in return for unloading their bad assets. But it would allow Treasury to designate financial institutions as "agents of the government," and mandate that they perform any "reasonable duties" that might entail.

The government could contract with private companies to manage the assets it purchased under the rescue.

Paulson says the government would in essence set up reverse auctions, putting up money for a class of distressed assets — such as loans that are delinquent but not in default — and financial institutions would compete for how little they would accept.

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